Lost Jobs... New Opportunities

What a 160-year-old idea about coal tells you about AI, your job, and what to do next.

An esoteric economic term that was a rounding error in search data for 20 years hit an all-time high in January 2025 and spiked again multiple times in recent months. Any guesses?

Jevons Paradox

In 1865, economist William Stanley Jevons noticed something strange. Steam engines were getting more efficient, using less coal per job. Most of Britain assumed that meant less coal would be burned. Instead, they burned a lot more. It turns out that when something becomes more cost-efficient, people don't just do the same amount for less — they use it more and find new uses for it. Cheap steam power didn't shrink demand for coal, it exploded it, because running machinery now made sense in places it hadn't a decade earlier. That's Jevons paradox.

The pattern repeats. In the 1970s, ATMs proliferated, and the prediction was fewer tellers. At the branch level, that's what happened — a typical urban branch went from 21 tellers to 13. But ATMs meant cheaper branches, which meant banks opened far more of them, and by the 2000s total teller employment had grown faster than the labor force overall. Economist James Bessen found the job itself changed too: tellers stopped counting cash and became more like relationship bankers — higher-skill work, and better pay. The job survived. It just changed.

The Jevons pattern doesn't mean everyone worried about losing their job will be fine. There is, and will be, real disruption and displacement, and for the people affected it will cause real pain. But there absolutely will be opportunity.

Why This Might Be Your Moment, Not Your Ending

The rise of AI is creating tremendous new needs. Take the trades. Danny Penny wrote a piece on X about the likely positive impact of data centers on U.S. employment, and the massive new shortage of electricians that has emerged as a result. Big companies are moving to close the gap — Meta just announced a major investment in closing the skills shortage, and new ventures like Mason Street Training are being built to do the same. Many of these roles will go to people earlier in their careers. But what about those further along?

Plenty of late-career roles involve process-heavy work that's getting automated. If that's you, it's fair to be angry or scared. But there are still process bottlenecks that need judgment, context, and a feel for what matters — exactly the assets that accrue to someone with 20 or 30 years of industry experience. The expertise you've built, the network you've earned, the judgment that comes from being wrong a few times and learning from it — those are valuable assets. Somebody has to spot the bottleneck and build the thing that clears it. Maybe that's you.

Gen X is already taking action. A recent national survey (EPOP 2025, NORC/Kauffman Foundation) found more than 2 million Americans aged 50 to 64 — about 4% of that age group — actively trying to start a business. A survey by ZenBusiness found 40% of Gen X respondents are either considering or have already started entrepreneurial ventures as they approach traditional retirement age, and many new ventures founded by people over 50 are genuinely innovative. This isn't fringe — it's a real, growing wave, with little ecosystem support built for it yet. That gap, between having something real to offer and lacking the confidence and a clear path to build with it, is why I launched Second Half Ventures. Your job might be at risk — I won't tell you otherwise. But the fundamental, value-creating work itself — applying what you know to something that matters — probably isn't. If anything, it's just getting started.

If you want to learn more or get involved, contact Stuart Roth at stuart.2HV@gmail.com.